Super Bowl Sunday

Comments Off by in CMW News
February 5, 2016
Super Bowl Sunday

With Super Bowl Sunday marking its 50th anniversary this weekend, there’s plenty to distract from the recent grinding off the tops of stock prices. We recommend taking advantage of the entertainment in place of fretting the market doldrums.

But, just in case you want to keep one eye on your worries we have the perfect bridge to cover that gap from sports to stocks. That’s right; Zack’s Research has just the right recipe to keep you glued to the TV with part of your brain pulling for the Panthers and the other part for the Bronco’s regardless of your team loyalty.

So what’s the recipe? According to the respected market research firm, the Super Bowl has, “had an odd history of predicting the market. According to this theory, investors should cheer for an old NFC team.”  – Carolina Panthers in this case, “to win over teams that joined from the old AFL (AFC division)” – the Broncos this year.

Zacks goes on to explain, “A win from an NFC team indicates a Bull Market and means the stock market will be up for the following year. This indicator boasts an 80% accuracy rate, although in 2008 the NFC’s New York Giants won the Super Bowl and the stock market proceeded to have one of the worst years since the Great Depression. ”

Of course, this interesting tidbit is prefaced by the recognition that one of the oddest things about the stock market is its inherent unpredictability, or as they put it “unexplainable anomalies.” We would suggest this only makes sense since the stock market closely mirrors human nature which oddly enough can be described in the same way. Lois likes to emphasize more narrowly that the market is female; frequently doing in the short run whatever it takes to confuse the largest number of males in one move. But we digress.

This ‘predictive power’ suggests this year’s event offers an 80% chance of a bull market following the defeat of the Broncos – and the likely retirement of Peyton Manning. It conversely offers a 20% chance of a bull market following a Broncos victory, thereby also voiding the wild card chance of another 2008 market debacle.

Given that these odds are not that far off from historical odds – stocks are up on average about 65% and down about 35% you can pick either side of the numbers and align them with your favorite team, split your bet or even mix your bet. Betting is the essence of this game in case you hadn’t seen it. And, we mention this last bit only to remind you once again that long term investing and betting have nothing to do with each other. So pick your pattern and your team, which we’re sure you already have, and allow yourself to be distracted from the short term grind of the market for a fun time with friends and family.


6 Weirdest Stock Market Facts. (n.d.). Retrieved February 05, 2016, from http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/188543/6-weirdest-stock-market-facts#sthash.Z2kzWnq1.dpuf